Good points justin, but I think we disagree about the relevance of the constraints you identify. We should be using servers and distributed computing for processor-intensive tasks. My browser shouldn't render spreadsheets, Google should. It's a better allocation of resources and energy, as anyone participating in the SETI-at-home project can attest.
Re "the abysmal failure of the 'thin client'", I think we're seeing it return. Like many other ideas tossed around in the euphoric late-90s, the prediction wasn't inaccurate so much as the timeframe was overambitious. I work on a thinner client today than I did 7 years ago, and I expect this trend to continue. With browser-based apps, you can get an office staffer up and running with less than $1K software investment, and not have to worry about whether or not they're checking important files into a central repository.
Broadband penetration is again today's problem, not tomorrow's. Many areas are skipping whole generations of connectivity (witness wireless growth in Africa, for instance). Last I heard, we're at 60% broadband connectivity, and I expect that number to grow with improving wireless technologies.
I agree that a pure-browser environment won't happen today, but I credit that lag to slow user adoption more than technological constraints.
I think we mostly agree, except where you're wrong...
Good points justin, but I think we disagree about the relevance of the constraints you identify. We should be using servers and distributed computing for processor-intensive tasks. My browser shouldn't render spreadsheets, Google should. It's a better allocation of resources and energy, as anyone participating in the SETI-at-home project can attest.
I think some other people agree with me: http://googlesystem.blogspot.com/
Re "the abysmal failure of the 'thin client'", I think we're seeing it return. Like many other ideas tossed around in the euphoric late-90s, the prediction wasn't inaccurate so much as the timeframe was overambitious. I work on a thinner client today than I did 7 years ago, and I expect this trend to continue. With browser-based apps, you can get an office staffer up and running with less than $1K software investment, and not have to worry about whether or not they're checking important files into a central repository.
Broadband penetration is again today's problem, not tomorrow's. Many areas are skipping whole generations of connectivity (witness wireless growth in Africa, for instance). Last I heard, we're at 60% broadband connectivity, and I expect that number to grow with improving wireless technologies.
I agree that a pure-browser environment won't happen today, but I credit that lag to slow user adoption more than technological constraints.